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Archive for the 'Demo Kid' Category

A Chicken Wing WTF

Friday, September 3rd, 2010

- posted by demo kid

So Doug Parris posts some of the most foul of things on The Chicken Wing, sometimes reaching the level where I feel like kneeing him in the balls myself. (A particularly foul case in point.)

But nothing exemplifies the “party of Reagan” more than some pretty weird-ass poetry superimposed over a still from The Lord of the Rings. It just makes me want to pinch his cheeks and pat him on the head.

And if it were on velvet, it would complete ANY double-wide…

We were just told about that the other day… on the news…

Tuesday, August 31st, 2010

- posted by demo kid

Brilliant. Offered without any other comment (since it really doesn’t need it!).


Hope he had a box of tissues…

Sunday, August 15th, 2010

- posted by demo kid

Case in point as to why I believe many conservatives to be sub-human: Frosty Hardison’s outlandish wet dream about the murder of millions of Syrians. Hey… what’s wrong with a little genocide if it brings back Jesus, right?

More on Tea Party Polling Propaganda

Sunday, August 15th, 2010

- posted by demo kid

A tip by the Clark County Conservative, led me to this article in The Columbian: “New poll’s validity panned by experts: Candidates who got good news from web survey play it up”.

I may not agree with Lew Waters’ politics, but I do think that he was right on the money with what he was saying, and I do have to give him respect for that. The idea that a candidate could tout his “polling numbers” and then state that it’s “not his job” to vet the methodology? It’s dishonest and despicable… and mind-numbingly amateurish politicking, to boot. It just goes to show that many “Tea Party” politicians are exactly like other politicians — except with far poorer skills on the campaign trail.

Some folks much smarter than I (surprising, given they’re conservatives!) have connected a few more dots:

Last week conservative political blogs and the Victoria Taft talk radio show were abuzz with questions about whether Hedrick himself had some connection to the Washington State Political Polls. A Vancouver web developer said he had discovered that the poll’s website had the same domain registrar, was hosted on the same server, had the same block of IP numbers and bore the same programming “footprint” and coding as at least three Hedrick websites.

Matt Trent, a network engineer for Lewis County who is volunteering his technical expertise in the Hedrick campaign, said that’s not surprising since the domain registrar has hundreds of thousands of customers and the hosting company has thousands of IP addresses.

Certainly not enough solid evidence, but enough circumstantial evidence to make some likely guesses. Given that this “polling firm” has not disclosed its actual name, more extensive details about its polling lists, or even a half-hearted defense of the big gaping holes in its methods… it all just appears laughable in its fishiness.

And, of course, some of the comments on The Columbian website are just… brilliant.

I guess any poll showing Hedrick in the lead is an issue. But the fact is and what the Columbian has failed to state is Hedrick is leading in all of the Public Polls.

Lew, how many names to you have on here? They are all coming from your same IP address.. Nice to be able to view the IP address of posters on this site.

David calls them out. They are the rude ones! They are the elected polititions who believe we are stupid, racist, terrorist types! God bless David for defending my Liberty! God bless David for having the guts to stand up to Brian Baird for calling ME A BROWN SHIRT NAZI TYPE!

The Columbian begins its smearing.

Seems like as we see more of these people in action, we can not only see that they’re whackjobs… many of them are just completely divorced from reality.

And statistics, for that matter…

Jean Godden: Asking About Tunnel Overruns = Propping Up Dictators

Sunday, August 8th, 2010

- posted by demo kid

Let me interrupt my amusement over conservatives’ lack of understanding of radiative heat transfer and polling with a big cup of WTF: Jean Godden’s recent “editorial” about the Seattle waterfront tunnel in Crosscut. I don’t think that I’m going too far when I say that this essay is a big steaming pile of shit. While this awful excuse for an opinion article tries to discount McGinn’s concerns about cost overruns, it instead reveals how paper-thin and pathetic the City Council’s rationale for opposing McGinn is at this point, and how just plain inept Godden is at stating her positions.

In other words… it’s a perfect article for Crosscut. :)

I went home the other night and looked under the bed. Then I looked in the closet and the alcove by the fireplace. Nothing. Not one single “cost overrun.” Not even a stray “legislative intent.”

That’s when I became more convinced than ever that it’s time to put an end to all this fearmongering and begin the task of creating a waterfront for all.

I wonder if this is what she does for all important issues in the city. Seriously, does she come home and say, “No homeless under my bed! No need to worry about them!”?

For too many months, Mayor Mike McGinn has been trying to scare the public with his repeated outcries over “cost overruns.” You have to give the guy credit for his approach. He’s been using a technique commonly known as F.U.D. - sowing fear, uncertainty, and doubt.

Or the technique of raising a legitimate question that city council and the state government haven’t seen fit to answer.

His tactics remind me of a class I took at the University of Washington School of Communications. It was titled “Techniques of Persuasion,” and better known as “Propaganda 101.” The class studied techniques used for centuries to change attitudes and manipulate public opinion. These same techniques have been used to prop up dictators, popularize wars, and sell soap.

If the “manipulation of public opinion” involves asking questions that tunnel proponents cannot answer, this “technique of persuasion” should actually be called “giving the people more information to make a decision”. Doubt that many dictators were propped up because of that.

But hey… the Killing Fields and the surface option are the same exact thing, right?

The assigned text was J.A.C. Brown’s Techniques of Persuasion: From Propaganda to Brainwashing. As an unreformed book lover, I still have the text on my bookshelf. It’s interesting to see how many propaganda techniques the mayor has used in his mission to blow up the tunnel. Among them:

I see… so the best way to fight “propaganda” is to provide false motives for why the question was being asked instead of actually answering the question?

Simplicity and repetition. Make the issue something easy to grasp and repeat it over and over. In time, it will be accepted by your audience. In other words, instill fear of ‘cost overruns’ and “Who Will Pay?”

Sounds like a simple fear that is easy to grasp and SHOULD be repeated over and over again to me. Who will be paying, by the way?

Selection. Present one side of the picture only. Don’t talk about successful tunnels such as San Francisco’s Bart, the Third Avenue Transit Tunnel, or the 100-year-old railway tunnel under Seattle’s downtown.

All three of which, oddly enough, are tunnels for transit and not traffic. And note as well that the Downtown Bus Tunnel came in 56% over budget in the 1990s.

Odd that she isn’t raising the Big Dig in Boston or the tunneling for Brightwater, though…

Assertion. Make bold statements. Unveil graphs showing that everyone will be forced to pay big taxes for cost overruns.

Bold statements and graphs that haven’t been refuted, as far as I can see.

Find a scapegoat. Convince people that the governor and the city council are to blame. Offer to debate those who differ and if they don’t take the bait, have your surrogates stereotype them as cowardly.

You’re not a “scapegoat” if you’re actually the one creating the problem here!

The Big Lie. During his campaign the mayor said that, while he personally opposed the deep-bore tunnel, he would not stand in the way. He is now on the record as saying that he would oppose it, even if the cost overrun issue were removed.

Make the cost overrun issue irrelevant, and he won’t have a leg to stand on.

Ignore or discredit conflicting evidence. No matter that the city attorney has stated that the cost overrun language isn’t enforceable. Never mind that the governor pointed out that cost overrun language is merely an expression of legislative intent, not enforceable law. Nor that the state attorney general has said that further legislation would be required to make the legislature’s intent operative.

Despite the claims of the state government that Seattle will not be on the hook, there is no mechanism identified to pay for cost overruns with this project. Pardon me if I think this could all go horribly wrong; despite the lack of “enforceability”, that language is still there.

These propaganda techniques have all been employed by the mayor to oppose the tunnel project. Yet his most formidable weapon is the use of FUD, scaring everyone into thinking they’ll be taxed to the max for a project that they cannot influence or afford, spreading uncertainty about the ability of the project to be completed on budget, and casting doubt on the wisdom of preserving a vital transportation route.

Someone will need to pay for a tunnel that is very likely to cost more than what is budgeted now, and there is a proven track record for overruns in the region with the Beacon Hill Sound Transit tunnel, the downtown bus tunnel, and the drilling for the Brightwater plant. Less expensive plans have been developed that preserve a “vital transportation route” without relying on a tunnel. How is telling the truth “propaganda”?

Because the propaganda campaign has gone on long enough, it was timely and welcome Monday when I joined a majority of city council members in sponsoring a resolution that affirms the council’s intention to move forward on agreements with the state. After months of negotiations, the city council has introduced Resolution 31235 stating the council’s intention to authorize agreements if the state awards a contract to a bidder who can complete all elements of the deep-bore tunnel project within budget.

“Within budget”… for now. But later?

The resolution protects the city of Seattle and reaffirms the city’s policy that the state is solely responsible for all costs associated with the deep-bore tunnel, including any cost overruns related to the implementation of the state transportation department’s program. The resolution directly addresses potential overruns, stating that “it is the city’s policy that in no event shall the city or any Seattle area property owners be specially required by the state to pay for costs or any cost overruns related to implementing (the Washington State Department of Transportation’s) program.”

Because if costs skyrocket and the state refuses to chip in, the city council can just force the governor to pay more? I’d like to see THAT game of chicken, where drilling equipment lies idle beneath the Seattle waterfront while Olympia tells the Seattle City Council to go fuck themselves.

The hope that the mayor might give up on his mission to make “cost overruns” a perennial rallying cry is probably an empty one. Like the “birthers” who refuse to give up on their campaign to make the president seem an alien, the ‘cost overrunners’ are hell bent on spreading their propaganda, even after it has been repeatedly revealed as an empty threat.

Yes, folks… Godden just fucking went there.

It’s been an interesting exercise to witness. But now it’s time to move on and to focus our energies on moving the project forward and providing a corridor that works for the city, region, and state. We must take advantage of the once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to unite Seattle with the sweetest deepwater harbor in the world.

Don’t forget that sweet, sweet deepwater port!

The last sentence pretty much sums up the type of attitude that a lot of people find infuriating. In the face of some very serious questions about long-term budget issues, the response from a city councilmember is not crafted to address them and put them to rest. Instead, it’s simply, “Trust us… we know better than you. We wouldn’t want to lose this ‘once-in-a-lifetime’ opportunity, would we?”

Misleading Pollsters Support Right-Wingnut Hopes

Thursday, August 5th, 2010

- posted by demo kid

Over at The Chicken Wing, they’re positively wetting themselves over Clint Didier’s “rise” in the “polls”.

The latest poll on the U.S. Senate race has Clint ahead of Dino Rossi, and shows Clint posting a 10% increase from a month ago. He’s on the move!

The source of this glee? Raw results from the Washington State Political Polls about the Senate Primary, showing Clint with 18.9% of the vote, and Dino Rossi with 18.1%.

Now, I’ve noted the chicanery that TCW likes to use when it comes to poll numbers; at times it can seem like they’re expecting some sort of massive upset here where career Democrats are going to suddenly flock to many-time loser Dino Rossi, to fulfill some kind of Tea Party wet dream for a Rossi-Didier matchup. (Or, at the very least, a Tea Partier - Democrat showdown.)

However, I didn’t quite go mining through the methodology of the actual survey that the Teabaggers are using to anchor their hopes and dreams last time. What I should have realized is that it’s absolute, unmitigated bullshit. It’s not even worth it for any responsible agency to refer to these results. The way they are presented is completely useless, and if I were paying these pollsters any sort of money whatsoever for real polling data, I’d sue their asses. Anyone that quotes this data is either stupid, or intentionally misleading you.

Why? A completely flawed methodology and an irresponsible presentation of results.

To start with, the way the surveys are distributed and returned is, at best, suspect. From their website:

Survey participants are selected from our database of Washington State residents. Those selected for the survey are given a website link and survey code where they can answer the survey questions online.

About 10,000 participants are selected in each district to complete the survey however we experience about a 10 - 15 percent return on those that are selected. Survey results can have a MoE (Margin of Error) as do all surveys when selecting a random sample of the population and the MoE is listed below each survey result.

Our surveys are sent via email, and each survey can be responded to only via our website. Each participant is given the website link and a log in code for the survey they were selected to take. Washington State Political Polls will conduct (2) surveys before the primary election and (6) surveys before the general election. All of our surveys are advertisement free.

A website link and a survey code? No wonder there’s only a 10-15% return rate… I’d have thrown it out with the rest of the spam myself. Heavy self-selection bias, too. Still, as the Internet guru of polling has stated, some Internet polls aren’t bad, even if old people, the poor, and folks that don’t really use computers wouldn’t be counted.

So I should give these folks the benefit of the doubt, right? Perhaps they use complicated statistical techniques to address these gaps?

Wrong.

The results that they present are simple percentages of the number of responses they get, which is plainly obvious from their made-in-the-90s webpage. This is fine, until you look up and down the columns relating “political affiliation” and realize that they seemed to stratify the sample to ensure that they had equal numbers of Democrats and Republicans. For the 7th Congressional District, where Barack Obama carried 84% of the vote in 2008 and John Kerry received 79% of the vote in 2004, they had 362 Republican respondents and 341 Democratic respondents. Since all of the WSPP results are simply percentages of their raw sample, unadjusted for errors and biases in their sampling, this would lead you to believe that Seattle leans slightly Republican! To call this inaccurate would be an understatement, for obvious reasons.

If you merely look at the percentages, they do look somewhat plausible, I’ll admit. The survey even has a margin of error! (Of what, I’m not entirely certain — they don’t seem to be following any reasonable statistical methodology.) However, if this pollster didn’t even manage to get a representative sample of Democrats versus Republicans with their web-based approach to polling, counting up the number of responses they got and crowing about a Didier victory is not just wrong-headed, it’s an error made using poorly-presented data.

According to the webpage, these surveys are conducted by a “National survey company for manufactures of household and other consumer products”. I haven’t a clue what that means… but it’s obvious that they don’t know a damned thing about political polling. It also makes me doubt the earnest claim on their website:

So who is our client? You, the American Citizens of the United States of America are our clients in these surveys. We hope this website is a benefit to the people of Washington State and if nothing else, we hope it will help you make an informed decision in this election.

“Informed decision”, my ass. Makes you wonder what their real motives are.

(Oh, and note that even Clark County Conservative isn’t taken in with this. But why dispute “polling” when it apparently shows you in the “lead”?)

Teaching Thermodynamics 101 - update

Tuesday, August 3rd, 2010

-posted by demo kid

Jonathan emailed me about the long comment that I made to his scientifically flawed post, claiming — and probably righly so — that it was too long for a comment. Still, it seems like he still doesn’t grasp basic thermodynamics. I’ll keep you updated about it… I’m interested in hearing all about a world without radiated heat.

Teaching Thermodynamics 101

Saturday, July 31st, 2010

- posted by demo kid

I feel sad that Jonathan didn’t even name-check me when writing up a new (and scientifically-inadequate) blog post about heat transfer and global warming. I’ve posted my comment to his post below, in case he’s more committed to faith-based physics than actual principles.

What bugs me here, though, is what bugs me with a big portion of the Global Warming Denialist movement (or Creationists, or whomever): they just don’t learn the basics before providing criticism. Everyone cherry-picks their sources, of course, but if you get something like entropy wrong when you’re trying to criticize someone with a doctorate in physics, you should lose all credibility. (And you shouldn’t be surprised when people ignore you.)

So my long and boring comment to his post is here… note that it’s been 13 years since I’ve taken a thermo course, and 10 since my last physical science course, so bear with my clumsiness. Any suggestions to improve this example so that Jonathan can understand it… well… I’m all ears.

(more…)

Misfit of science, part 1: Just being damned stupid.

Saturday, July 24th, 2010

- posted by demo kid

So in the face of the blinding idiocy called Jonathan Gardner’s posts about greenhouse gases and climate change, it’s pretty clear to anyone with half a brain that he doesn’t know a damned thing.

What is interesting about this, though, is that it breaks down into two distinctive branches of sheer ignorance:

1. Stupid, willful ignorance about basic facts of science.
2. Selective picking of scientific sources as “proof”.

Let’s cover the first one, shall we?

Point of ignorance #1: Stupid, willful ignorance about basic facts of science.

Jonathan just gets his facts incorrect in a vain attempt to “disprove” global warming supporters. To wit, his explanation of the Second Law of Thermodynamics

Let me help the lay-person understand why the Greenhouse Effect doesn’t exist and can never exist.

At the very simplest, consider a hot cup of water sitting on a counter top at room temperature. What happens? The counter top and surrounding air warms slightly, but the cup of water cool to room temperature. This is the Second Law of Thermodynamics in action. As long as there is heat transfer, the two bodies will come to an equilibrium in temperature. We don’t have to even think about what mechanism of heat transfer exists, we simply have to know that two bodies have different temperatures to know that they will come to an equilibrium. Rather, (as I explain in the appendix below), that a body will eventually emit as much heat as it absorbs.

What people who preach the “Greenhouse Effect” want us to believe is that you can put some kind of insulator between the hot water and the counter top that will keep the water hot indefinitely, or even make it hotter than it was before. Such an insulator doesn’t exist, nor can it. At best, you can slow down the heat transfer process to a crawl, but the water will still cool. The best insulator we have—thermoses—do nothing more than slow down the heat transfer.

If he explains it like that, then OF COURSE it doesn’t make sense. However, just like his “proof” that evolution doesn’t exist, the laws of physics are reality-based, not faith-based, and he uses a bunch of pretty fucking stupid examples.

I wrote up a much longer, more scientific version that dealt with albedo, black-body radiation, energy inputs and the like. I decided against writing out a long scientific screed — although I can upon request! — because the problem here is that he’s misrepresenting basic facts. The scientific example shows the simple principle that everything with temperature above absolute zero loses heat to radiative losses, and that this dispersed heat energy can be taken up by everything around it.

This principle doesn’t subvert the Second Law of Thermodynamics, but Jonathan tries to disprove that idea… by talking about two completely different methods of heat transfer that don’t even demonstrate the phenomenon he’s trying to disprove. WRONG. He may talk about how folks can keep his teabag water “hot indefinitely, or even make it hotter than it was before”… but just complaining that you’re teabag water is getting cold due to convection and conduction doesn’t come close to disproving principles about radiative losses of heat from objects.

Lazy, lazy, lazy. A better example would be whether water boils at the same rate in a teapot versus an open pot (with more losses of heat to the environment) on the same burner. However, who needs a rational comparison when you’re just trying to disprove someone?

With Jonathan’s grasp of physics, he probably believes that you will eventually freeze to death unless you live outside of tropical climates, or if you turn your thermostat below 98 degrees. Maybe not today, maybe not tomorrow, but some day you too will cool to room temperature.

Not going to make the (u)SP front page…

Sunday, July 18th, 2010

- posted by demo kid

Report: Warmest June on record globally.

Something to remember when the (u)SP twits post about snowstorms in January.