Matt Rosenberg finally gives me the recrimination post I had been waiting for fo’ so long. It’s not as much as I’d hoped for, but still, pretty rad. Thank you Matt!
Make Or Break Time For The Washington GOP
Break!
Hitting bottom affords a certain sparkling opportunity for the Washington GOP to regain relevance. (About which, more below the fold). First, the backdrop. The Seattle Times today documents with a sobering legislative district map and an equally sobering majority/minority chart appended to this story, just how vast now will be Democratic control of the state legislature, and how central are Puget Sound’s suburbs to political fortunes of both parties. It is easy enough to predict that unleashed Democrats could dig their own hole, as evidenced by comments from Seattle Democratic State Senator-elect Ed Murray in the Times piece. Murray says: expect more spending on education, transportation, and environment. That spending could (and in the case of education certainly will) be ineffective and wasteful.
If there’s one thing the voters showed by voting so overwhelmingly Democratic was that they don’t want spending on education, transit or the environment. (I don’t want to tell you how to write, or shit, but “more below the fold” would probably work out OK. People would assume you were writing about what you were writing about) And most voters probably agree with Rosenberg that reduction of class size and teacher pay are waste. Please keep writing that for 2 years, we could still use the extra seats. (Two parenthetical asides in one paragraph? Lame!) Also, Murray just got elected, so I don’t know how much power he actually has.
Personally, I’d like the state to get into the sidewalk business. Maybe spend less on roads to nowhere in Eastern Washington and put that money in grants for sidewalks. Build up North of 85th in Seattle and in the suburbs of Tacoma, Everett, and Spokane. Part of the urbanization of the suburbs. It gets people out of their cars, and into the communities.
So perhaps it’s comforting for some Rs to continue assuming that the key Central Puget Sound suburban electorate is a fickle, impatient beast, and Ds could be on the outs soon if they don’t deliver. That’s not a smart approach. State Republicans likely now stand at a precipice.
Fair enough. Give up the suburbs.
If they are unable to inspire suburbanites who are far, far closer to the political center than most Sound Politics readers - the party will fall into the hands of blindered zealots fixed on banning abortion, insisting on deportation of 12 million illegal U.S. immigrants, and reviewing school fiction picks for suitability.
Rossi was one of those, another one has nothing to do with state issues, but is actually less far than the state party platform that says the 14th ammendment doesn’t count, and the third is already happening on the local level.
Lacking a fresh, responsive and inspiring agenda significantly decoupled from the political hackery and boilerplate of the official party “platform” process, the state GOP will fare quite poorly; and their expected ‘08 gubernatorial challenger Dino Rossi will fall far short compared to his highly-contested loss in ‘04.
Sounds about right, for a Republican, although, I would hasten to add that what the Democrats do will have more of an impact on the next election, at least on the state level. President Bush will still determine what goes on at the federal level, but the Democrats can start by accomplishing things there too.
Put briefly, the state GOP agenda must embrace, with substantial particulars:
Ooh, an agenda.
a Central Puget Sound transportation plan which yields real congestion relief and future capacity expansion, via major spending on roads and transit;
Dear Matt Rosenberg;
You’re writing on one of the most anti-transit spending blogs I know of. It opposed 912, it mocks LINK and right here in this very post, you said that you thought Democrats spending on transportation was going to be wasteful.
Kisses!
Carl Ballard
prioritized coalition-building with Seattle minority commmunities and suburban parents around real school choice, starting with charter schools and leading over time to the likely state-level changes needed to enable vouchers;
Didn’t the voters reject that shit once? I mean I know it’s been like a decade since we kicked I-173’s ass, but you should totally try that shit again. And you should totally tell the minority communities that defunding public education is good for their children.
Commmunities?
a tenable, sincere, yet authentically GOP environmental agenda which is about much more than land-use and business regulation gripes;
Ha!
a high-profile push for state performance audits of the billions currently granted in special corporate tax breaks by Olympia, to see whether quantifiable economic benefits to the state actually exceed the value of the favors granted;
Didn’t the Democrats already pass that? Way to get on board the Democratic Party train.
a new “tough on crime” agenda - including funds for more prisons, fixing loopholes in “Three Strikes,” a critical review and likely excission of the much-abused Drug Offender Sentencing Alternative (DOSA) program, and tougher sentences sooner for auto theft and drunk driving;
So lock up more people because of drug and property crimes and lock them up for longer. I thought you were trying to build a libertarian wing of the party.
Sorry to step out and address you, dear readers, but I couldn’t think of anything that the extra “s” in “excission” should stand for. The best I could come up with was “shitty spelling is just starting” but it had too much non-”s” words. So I’m sorry.
publicly-funded online databases showing the key decisions by county judges (i.e. sentences dispensed to first-time and repeat offenders versus established sentencing mimimums and maximums, DOSA dispensations granted to repeat offenders, alleged murderers declared “mentally incompetent” to stand trial).
That sounds like a waste of taxpayer money for a list of shit that people will never use. But it’d be another thing for Sharkansky to jack off to while writing stupid posts. I think you could save the taxpayers a significant amount of money if you just gave Sharkansky the occasional hand job.
Mimimums?
As for macro-level factors, state legislative candidate recruitment for the Washington GOP remains as challenging as ever, as the jobs are part-time, the pay modest, and many of the top potential GOP recruits busy and satisfied in the private sector. Nationally, Democrats swept to power, with long coattails here in Washington state, based on a generalized and well-deserved dissatisfaction with the GOP. It was borne not only of doubts on Iraq, but also profligate spending, a discordantly conservative social agenda, and especially, corruption.
It also had to do with local Republicans opposing transit, and gay rights, and education funding. Oh and so blatantly using sex offender legislation as a cudgel instead of trying to help children.
A prime case in point was the spectacular drubbing given to the eminently qualified and capable GOP U.S. Senate challenger Mike McGavick, despite the weak record and ineffectual verbosity of Democratic incumbent Maria Cantwell.
Shit, being on the forefront of the environment in the Senate, saving ANWR, keeping Megatankers out of the Puget Sound, taking on Enron, leading the way on making sure that there aren’t permanent bases in Iraq, all while in the minority party, does’t count as a record. And did you just say that Cantwell was an example of Democrats’ coat tails? Because as the only partisan running statewide, the Democrats were riding her coat tails.
So despite the pitfalls facing any majority party, it’s unwise to assume the Ds will move into ‘08 with negatives anywhere near as high as those which burdened GOP challengers and incumbents nationally and statewide earlier this month.
Well it depends on what we do. But you should totally try some more stupid tricks instead of trying to help shape legislation what little you can.
For these reasons, the state GOP’s new playbook needs to start with the conviction that a strong, suburban-oriented crossover platform will not be allowed to merely gather dust on a shelf, but will help breathe life and purpose into future state legislative candidacies. Accordingly, the party’s leadership at the state and suburban county level, plus its communications appartatus and key donors will be challenged to do more, and to do it more smartly.
Look, the suburbs and the rural areas don’t have much in common. So you’ll probably lose one or the other in the long term. Personally, while I think you can recapture the further out suburbs, maybe, focusing your time on wooing back Bellevue is just going to upset your base.
But keep building the appartatus.
Platforms are a tricky business. Something like the political agenda the party really needs to regain influence in Seattle’s suburbs (see above for my stab at that) would never, ever result from the wearisome sausage-grinding of the annual state GOP platform process, or even those of the more suburb-attuned King, Pierce and Snohomish County GOP organizations.
Part of that is because it’s a mix of bullshit and unpopular things. And to the extent that it isn’t, it’s what the Democrats already did.
So, what to do? First, realize that those platform exercises are already largely symbolic, a necessary sop to loyalists who often care more about “being heard” than formulating a workable GOP political agenda for high impact districts. The latter can be partially informed by the official state party platform and the King, Pierce and Snohomish GOP platforms, but it must not be mainly defined by any of those.
Way to respect your party.
The relevance of hidebound party loyalists is eroding. This trend will intensify as today’s 18-34 cohort - so attuned to picking and choosing from among myriad entertainment and news sources - grows older and votes more frequently, while still applying the same a la carte approach to political engagement and voting. Revulsion with the GOP indeed led to more straight-party ballots being cast last month, nationally and in many Washington state districts. But ticket-splitting by independent-leaning voters is the future. As indicated by the narrow escape of U.S. Rep. Dave Reichert (R-8th) from the anti-GOP tsunami in Washington state.
I’m not sure what the point of that paragraph was.
Finally, although Washington state legislative candidates must always exhibit fundraising prowess of their own, it’s supposed to be a team effort. Funding of viable campaigns by the state Republican party and county GOP organizations is another concern, which certainly deserves corrective emphasis.
I don’t know what you’re saying here either. Are the parties not spending their money on candidates? Would you like to have them stop spending money on candidates? I’ve read that paragraph 3 times, and I still don’t know.
So. It’s all fairly straightforward, really, if nonetheless daunting.
So. Step one: propose a bunch of unpopular things that have no chance of getting into the platform, much less actual law. Step two: ??? Step three: majority!
Will the leaders step up?
No, but I think you have a good shot at recruiting underpants gnomes.