EFFin’ Unsound

I wasn’t going to make fun of FWC for a while. Mix it up a bit, you know. Maybe go local. But since he called me out, I figured I’d better do something. Fortunately, Politics, Business, Sports and Crapola did the heavy lifting. So how to mix it up, but still not, you know, have to do too much work? I hope I find some way before the end of this post.

As a student of Physics, I learned a few things about what science really is. It is not what the vast majority of people think it is.
There are several fallacies that people adopt, without considering their implications. Science is the practice of trying very hard not to make these same mistakes.

The one I wish to address is the mocking of that which they refuse to understand.

If only there was some sort of primary source written by our ambassador that described how bad the situation in Iraq was 6 months ago due to our rush to war. If there had been some kind of report like that, then I could just quote it instead of doing actual writing. Hey! And then maybe I’ll make some comments. Or not for the most part. Remember, things have got worse since then.

Galileo met a fair number of critics to his ideas. Galileo was, of course, wrong about everything. The planets didn’t move in a circle and his equations were only neat estimates of a very messy reality. The only critics that were correct were those who came much after his time and questioned his assumptions methodically, reasoning about their implications, and replacing them with something more sound.

“10. One employee informed us that his brother-in-law had been kidnapped. The man was eventually released but this caused enormous emotional distress to his family. One employee, a Sunni Kurd, received an indirect threat on her life in April. She took extended leave, and by May, relocated abroad with her family.”

I imagine some of his critics discarded his theories because it just seemed so silly. Maybe they entertained his writing with their reading because it was good for a laugh.

“11. In April, employees began reporting a change in demeanor of guards at the green zone checkpoints. They seemed to be militia-like in some cases seemingly taunting. One employee asked us to get her some press credentials because the guards held her embassy badge up and proclaimed loudly to passers-by ‘Embassy’ as she entered. Such information is a death sentence if heard by the wrong people.”

Of course, nowadays nobody would take Galileo for a fool, even though he was wrong.

Today we stand in the middle of yet another world war. The battle lines are drawn by our enemies, they have assaulted us at every opportunity, and are busy manufacturing the weapons and training the troops for the next assault.

“18. Another employee tells us life outside the Green Zone has become ‘emotionally draining’. He claims to attend a funeral ‘every evening’. He, like other local employees, is financially responsible for his immediate and extended families. He revealed that ‘the burden of responsibility; new stress coming from social circles who increasingly disapprove of the coalition presence, and everyday threats weigh very heavily’.”

People who see this and point it out are mocked openly. For some reason the idea of a third world country securing a nuclear weapon, transporting it covertly to the United States, and successfully detonating it, killing millions of Americans seem silly. The idea of religious fundamentalists half a world away secretly plotting our torture and death seems absurdly composed by the frenzied mind of an equally psycopathic {sic} dictator here at home.

Remember that Churchill was mocked and laughed at. Remember that Lincoln endured his fair share of scorn as well. Every great leader, pointing out the way to go has been laughed at at some point in their careers. It goes with the game.

“20 Since Samarra, Baghdadis have honed survival skills. Vocabulary has shifted. Our staff - and our contacts - have become adept in modifying behaviour to avoid ‘Alasas’, informants who keep an eye out for ‘outsiders’ in neighborhoods. The Alasa mentality is becoming entrenched as Iraqi security forces fail to gain public confidence.”

Carl here. You know who else was mocked savagely? Nixon. And Burr. And everyone else in public life. And the second at proves his point.

Just be careful not to get caught up in that crowd mentality. It was the crowd who murdered Galileo for his work. It was the crowd who praised the supreme court for the Dread Scott allowing slavery everywhere. It was the crowd who hailed “peace in our time” as Chamberlain returned from Germany. It is the same crowd who mocks those who see the danger and point it out for what it is.

“22. A resident of Shia/Christian Karrada district told us ‘outsiders’ have moved in and control the mukhtars.”

The problem with those who mock is that they don’t even consider that their opponent may be right. They don’t analyze their statements, their suppositions, their premises, or the logical steps taken to get from point A to point B. If they do, and find it inarguable, they refuse to attack the presumptions or logical steps and instead resort to other logical fallacies to expose it as weak.

“5. Staff members have reported it is now dangerous for men to wear shorts in public; they no longer allow their children to play outside in shorts. People who wear jeans in public have come under attack.”

When a theory is attacked in this way, the only logical reasoning is that perhaps the attacker was incapable of exposing its weaknesses and so resorts to extra-logical forms of persuasion to convince people it is wrong.

“6. One colleague beseeched us to help a neighbor who was uprooted in May from her home of 30 years, on the pretense of application of some long-disused law. The woman, who is a Fayli Kurd, says she has nowhere to go, but the courts give them no recourse to this new assertion of power. Such uprootings may be response by new Shia government authorities to similar actions against Arabs by Kurds in other parts of Iraq.”

A classic example of this is the dialogue on the War in Iraq. President Bush carefully lays out what the strategic goals are, how we will achieve them, what the path will look like, and why we must do it now and not later. his {sic} opponents answer with name-calling, pictures of him morphed into a monkey, and blanket accusations (without substance) that he is a liar, stupid, and a draft-dodger.

“NOTE: An Arab newspaper editor told us he is preparing an extensive survey of ethnic cleansing, which he said is taking place in almost every Iraqi province, as political parties and their militias are seemingly engaged in tit-for-tat reprisals all over Iraq.”

Rather than get distracted, it is critical to examine the arguments for what they are. President Bush may be a liar, stupid, or a draft-dodger, or a combination of those, let’s suppose. President Bush may be evil, a dictator, or even the descendent of an ape. Yet, this does nothing to refute his argument on why we need to fight Islamofascism in Baghdad, or why we can’t withdraw without complete victory, or why sending more troops right now won’t help us win the war any earlier. His argument, in the mouth of his attackers, is thus strengthened, having no weakness to attack, no flaw to expose, no error to discuss.

“15. We have begun shredding documents that show local staff surnames. In March, a few members approached us to ask what provisions would we make for them if we evacuate.”

In the same way, when I call for war on the Iranian leadership, and I am met with comments about how I should wear adult diapers, I am led to believe that my opponents don’t have anything to argue with, and thus I stand correct. I will remain correct until anyone is able to expose the flaw of my arguments.

“2. Two of our three female employees report stepped up harassment beginning in mid-May. One, a Shia who favors Western clothing, was advised by an unknown woman in her Baghdad neighbourhood to wear a veil and not to drive her own car. She said some groups are pushing women to cover even their face, a step not taken in Iran even at its most conservative.”

I encourage anyone to try, without name-calling, mocking, or any other logical fallacy.

“23. Although our staff retain a professional demeanor, strains are apparent. We see their personal fears are reinforcing divisive sectarian or ethnic channels. Employees are apprehensive enough that we fear they may exaggerate developments or steer us towards news that comports with their own world view. Objectivity, civility, and logic that make for a functional workplace may falter if social pressures outside the Green Zone don’t abate.”

Carl again. Is that why you deleted Thehim’s relatively benign comments? I mean shit, he and I can’t mock you nearly as well as the facts.

This entry was posted on Wednesday, December 13th, 2006 at 8:21 pm and is filed under Carl. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.